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US Treasury yields fell by 6-9bp across the curve. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran are said to have agreed on an extension of the ceasefire for 60 days. However, the agreement is pending approval from US President Donald Trump. The Headline and Core PCE Price Indexes rose by 3.8% and 3.3% respectively, coming inline with expectations. The preliminary Durable Goods Orders rose by 7.9% in April, beating expectations of 4.0%. The second reading of US Q1 GDP QoQ rose by 1.6%, softer than expectations of 2.0%.
Looking at equity markets, the S&P and Nasdaq ended at record highs, up by 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. US IG CDS spreads tightened by 0.5bp and HY CDS spreads tightened by 2.7bp. European equity markets ended lower. European IG CDS spreads were 0.6bp tighter and Crossover spreads tightened by 4.5bp. Asian equity markets have opened higher this morning. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads tightened by 0.7bp.
New Bond Issues

StanChart raised $1bn via a PerpNC7 bond at a yield of 7.00%, 37.5bp inside initial guidance of 7.375% area. The junior subordinated note is rated Ba1/BB+/BBB-. If not called by 8 December 2033, the coupon will reset to the US 5Y Treasury yield plus 267.2bp. The new bond offers a 44bp yield pick-up to its 7.625% Perp callable in 2032 that currently yields 6.56%.
NAB raised $3bn via a three-trancher. It raised:
Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.
Rating Changes
Term of the Day: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is an inflation metric measuring consumer spending on goods and services, released by the US Department of Commerce. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the Core PCE – this refers to the Headline PCE after stripping out two volatile components, namely, food and energy.
The US also publishes another inflation metric, the CPI (Consumer Price Inflation), a key inflation indicator. CPI and PCE differ on four fronts: formula, weight, scope and other factors. As per the BLS, “CPI sources data from consumers, while PCE sources from businesses. The scope effect is a result of the different types of expenditures CPI and PCE track…CPI only tracks out-of-pocket consumer medical expenditures, but PCE also tracks expenditures made for consumers, thus including employer contributions. The implications of these differences are considerable.”
Talking Heads
On Officials Can’t Rely on AI Boom to Fix Inflation – Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President
“I believe it would be risky to rely on the prospect of higher productivity growth in the future to solve our inflation problem today… data suggest the probability of the US currently being in a high productivity growth period is meaningfully below 50%… If we don’t see disinflation in the next one to two quarters, that would concern me.”
On US Funding Markets Flooded With Cash
Blake Gwinn, RBC
“I don’t think there is a single ‘smoking gun’ and that this continues to be a perfect ‘anti-storm’ of multiple calming factors coming together in the same direction”
Samuel Earl, Barclays
“Taken together, this points to a meaningful expansion in intermediation capacity across cash and repo markets, the outcome regulators were aiming for in relaxing the SLR requirement”
On Near-Term BOJ Hike Still Up in Air on Iran – Michio Saito, Nomura
“The time for an interest rate hike has already come, or at least is very close. I’m not sure if it will be a smooth path for the BOJ’s policy board to an interest-rate hike”
Top Gainers and Losers- 29-May-26*
