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Bond Market News
US Retail Sales Decelerates in June
July 17, 2026
US Treasury yields were nearly unchanged on Thursday. On the data front, US Headline Retail Sales for June grew by 0.2%, inline with expectations and softer than May’s revised 1.0% print. Core Retail Sales grew by 0.4%, again coming inline with expectations and softer than May’s revised 0.8% print. Fed Vice-Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that the current interest rate level is suitable, albeit hinting at the possibility of rate hikes if inflation fails to moderate soon.
Looking at US equity markets, the S&P and Nasdaq fell by 0.5% and 1.5% respectively. US IG CDS spreads were 0.7bp wider and HY CDS spreads widened by 3.3bp. European equity markets ended higher. European IG CDS spreads were flat and Crossover spreads widened by 1.6bp. Asian equity markets have opened broadly lower this morning. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads were 0.5bp tighter.
Rating Changes
- Moody’s Ratings downgrades Cosan’s ratings to B1, negative outlook
- Baker Hughes Co. Downgraded To ‘A-‘ On Chart Industries Acquisition; Outlook Stable
- Methanex Corp. Outlook Revised To Positive; ‘BB’ Rating Affirmed On Improved Credit Metrics And Deleveraging
- Fitch Affirms Conagra’s IDR at ‘BBB-‘; Outlook Revised to Negative
Term of the Day: Short Selling
Short selling is a trading strategy where one borrows a security, sells it on the open market and then buys the same security back later, hoping that the price has fallen since initially sold for. The short-seller essentially borrows and sells the security that he/she may not own, expecting its price to fall. Short selling is a leveraged trade since no initial capital is employed by the short-seller.
Citigroup’s analysts recommended their hedge fund clients to short bonds of CMA-CGM Group, noting that structural shifts in the shipping market could cause a drop in freight rates later this year and into 2027, as per sources.
Talking Heads
On Traders Bailing on Fed Hike Bets on Softer Inflation Path
Christopher Hodge, Natixis
“I think this is a function of the market coming around to the fact that hikes are not a foregone conclusion. Two straight well-below-consensus prints and a rosier inflation outlook means that the current policy may be sufficiently restrictive.”
On Gaming Bonds Losing Allure as Threat From Prediction Markets Grows
Jody Lurie, Bloomberg Intelligence
“There is still this hesitancy and concern when it comes to casinos and the gaming space. There’s the question of inflation, the consumer — those pieces that are really getting to the heart of the gaming space.”
John Kempf, Fitch Ratings
“These are two bellwether companies in the gaming sector and if they were to go private, there would be a dearth of information”
On Middle East Bond Spreads Hit 2022 High as Ceasefire Breaks Down
Hasnain Malik, Tellimer
“The increased sovereign risk premium for Gulf Cooperation Council sovereigns caught in the middle begins to reflect this new reality”
Top Gainers and Losers- 17-Jul-26*
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