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Bond Market News
Nigeria Upgraded to B+ by S&P
May 18, 2026
Nigeria was upgraded by a notch to B+ from B by S&P. The upgrade reflects Nigeria’s stronger economic fundamentals driven by higher oil production, expanded domestic refining capacity, exchange rate liberalization, and rising fiscal revenues. The current account surplus is projected to improve to 5.8% of GDP in 2026, while gross FX reserves have grown to $50bn from $33bn in 2023. The debt-to-revenue ratio has also fallen sharply to 338% in 2026 from 500% in 2023, and interest expenditure as a share of revenue is expected to decline to 21.4% by 2029, down from 39% in 2023. Despite these gains, Nigeria’s tax base remains among the narrowest of rated sovereigns. Looking ahead, the continuity of reforms is said to play a key role. Key legislative measures such as the Nigeria Revenue Service Act and Executive Order 9, which centralizes petroleum revenue flows to the federal government, are expected to underpin revenue growth. However, the upcoming election cycle may face implementation risks. The rating agency noted that an upgrade could follow if fiscal consolidation progresses or external imbalances narrow materially. However, a reversal of reforms or a significant expansion of fiscal deficits could lead to a downgrade.
Nigeria’s dollar bonds traded marginally lower, with its 7.875% 2032s down 0.3 points to 105, yielding 6.8%.
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