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Maldives Upgraded to Caa1 by Moody’s
October 9, 2026
Maldives was upgraded by a notch to Caa1 from Caa2 by Moody’s. The rating action reflects a material reduction in near-term default risk following the repayment and refinancing of significant external obligations. The government repaid its $500mn sukuk in April 2026, a $400mn currency swap, and treasury bills, while extending a $100mn private placement from the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development to 2031. Consequently, outstanding external government obligations declined to $2.4bn, around 30% of projected GDP in 2Q2026 from $2.8bn at end-2025. External liquidity pressures have eased, with remaining public and publicly guaranteed external debt service of $411mn due in 4Q2026 and $428mn in 2027. Continued bilateral and multilateral financing, including support from India and prospective financing from Malaysia, alongside World Bank and Asian Development Bank loans, has further strengthened funding access. Nevertheless, Moody’s cautioned that higher energy and transportation costs, weaker tourism receipts and import dependence could renew balance-of-payments pressures, with the fiscal deficit expected to widen to 8–8.5% of GDP in 2026. Moody’s projects government debt to remain above 100% of GDP, and substantial domestic refinancing needs will sustain liquidity risks.
– Vandit P
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