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Bond Market News
FOMC Minutes Indicate Case for Rate Hikes
July 9, 2026
US Treasury yields continued to move higher across the curve amid a resurfacing of US-Iran tensions. At a NATO summit, US President Donald Trump said the interim ceasefire agreement with Iran was over. Separately, the FOMC’s June meeting minutes showed that a few officials made a case for raising rates amid inflation concerns, although they voted unanimously to keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.
Looking at US equity markets, the S&P fell by 0.3% while the Nasdaq ended 0.2% higher. US IG CDS spreads were 0.8bp wider and HY CDS spreads widened by 4.5bp. European equity markets ended lower. European IG CDS spreads were 1.4bp wider, and Crossover spreads widened by 8.5bp. Asian equity markets have opened mixed this morning. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads were 2.2bp wider.
Rating Changes
- Fitch Upgrades CaixaBank to ‘A+’; Outlook Stable
- Cosan S.A. Ratings Lowered To ‘B+’ On Reduced Business Diversification And Strained Coverage Ratios; Outlook Negative
- Rumo S.A. Ratings Lowered To ‘B+’ From ‘BB-‘ Following Same Action On Parent; Outlook Negative
- Harley-Davidson Inc. Downgraded To ‘BB+’ On Slow Margin Growth And Stabilization; Outlook Stable
- Moody’s Ratings confirms Amaggi’s Ba3 ratings; outlook changed to negative
Term of the Day: MREL
MREL stands for Minimum
Talking Heads
On Inflation, Fed Back in Play as Iran Crisis Returns – Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research
“Inflation concerns are back in play and as a result of that, the Fed is back in play. Not only has the Fed pivoted to tightening, but they may actually have to tighten… This is a geopolitical crisis that just won’t go away, won’t end. We’re back to square one, in some ways, back to where we were in March.”
On IMF hoping to engage on central banks’ changes to forward guidance
“Forward guidance has been a useful tool in the past, especially at the zero lower bound, but I think it’s only natural as time goes by, and as we learn more, to kind of revisit the scope and again the modalities of that forward guidance”
On Pricey Credit Markets Fuel Funds That Can Buy Anything
Iain Stealey, JPMorgan Asset Management
“We’re in a world where there is going to be the odd hiccup out there.. would much prefer to be relying on our credit analysts to make sure that we are in the right names rather than buying an index-based approach”
Tom Ross, Janus Henderson Investors
“This is a more normalized world where you’ll have winners and losers.”
Top Gainers and Losers- 09-Jul-26*
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