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Bond Market News
Doubt Looms Over US-Iran Peace Talks
April 20, 2026
US Treasury yields eased across the curve by 4-5bp on Friday amid the continuation of the positive sentiment regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire talks. However, they have inched slightly higher this morning as Iran is said to have closed the strait over the weekend in response to the continued US blockade on Iranian vessels. US President Donald Trump said that they were “offering a very fair and reasonable deal” and threatened to destroy power plants and bridges if Iran does not take the deal. Iranian media noted that Tehran was not planning to take part in new talks citing the breach of a ceasefire by the US. It further vowed to retaliate amid the US seizing an Iranian vessel. Crude oil prices jumped by nearly 6% to $95.2/bbl.
Looking at US equity markets, the S&P and Nasdaq ended 1.2% and 1.5% higher respectively. US IG CDS spreads tightened by 1.7bp and HY CDS spreads were 10.3bp tighter. European equity indices ended higher too. The iTraxx Main CDS spreads tightened by 2.2bp and Crossover spreads were 11.2bp tighter. Asian equity markets have opened broadly higher this morning. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads were 1.6bp tighter.
New Bond Issues
- Seatrium Financial Services S$ 5Y at 3.2% area
- Shuifa Group $ 3Y at 5.1% area
UniCredit raised £400mn via a 5.5NC4.5 bond at a yield of 5.263%, 12bp inside initial guidance of UKT+120bp area. The senior non-preferred notes are rated Baa2/BBB/BBB+.
Scotiabank raised £300mn via a 4NC3 bond at a yield of 4.943%, 15bp inside initial guidance of UKT+100bp area. The senior notes are rated A2/A-/AA-.
New Bonds Pipeline
- Genting Overseas Holdings S$ PerpNC5.5, PerpNC10 bond
- Terumo $ 5Y bond
Rating Changes
- Fitch Upgrades Oman Electricity Transmission Company to ‘BBB-‘; Outlook Stable
- Talen Energy Supply LLC Debt Ratings Raised On Refinancing; New Incremental Unsecured Notes Rated ‘B+’
- Moody’s Ratings upgrades Vermilion’s CFR to Ba3; outlook stable
- Analog Devices Inc. Upgraded To ‘A’ On Improved Business Resilience Due To End Market Mix And Product Leadership
- Moody’s Ratings changes outlook on Bahrain to negative from stable; affirms B2 ratings
- Moody’s Ratings affirms Arada’s B1 rating, changes outlook to negative
- Moody’s Ratings changes Iraq’s outlook to negative, affirms Caa1 ratings
Term of the Day: Initial Price Guidance (IPG)
Initial price guidance (IPG) refers to the proposed yield on a new bond issue. Based on the IPG, investors will place orders with the lead managers of the new bond issue. Once the lead managers have received orders for the proposed bond, they will decide the final pricing on the bond, which in most cases will be tighter (lesser) than the IPG.
Talking Heads
On EM Bond Sales Soaring Again as Investors Dive Back Into Risk
Laura Reardon, MFS Investment Management
“The EM bond market appears to have largely moved beyond the war risk for now. Deals that were in the pipeline ahead of the conflict and subsequently put on hold, are now coming to market.”
Carmen Altenkirch, Aviva Investors
“With spreads where they are, it makes sense to issue. Sovereigns often wait for periods of relative calm to issue, particularly regular issuers like Turkey.”
Kieran Curtis, Aberdeen Group
“EM is far from the only market where conditions seem relatively unaffected by the geopolitics”
On Hedge Funds’ Treasury Bets Risk Market Shock – Torsten Slok, Apollo Global
Hedge funds now own roughly 8% of the entire $31tn US Treasury market (up from just 3% five years ago), fueled by heavy borrowing… “Any forced unwind of these leveraged positions could send shockwaves through global fixed income markets”
On IMF, World Bank meetings showing limits in mitigating shocks, reliance on US for solutions
Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister
“If the clear waters are open… that’s what would trigger, for me, a change in the scenario”
Roland Lescure, French Finance Minister
“The knot of this conflict is the Strait of Hormuz. We need this to open, but not at any price. I don’t want to pay a dollar to go through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Ekniti Nitithanprapas, deputy prime minister of Thailand
“We need to commit to transform…to help people transform to face the new fragmented world and high oil prices”
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