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Bahrain’s dollar bonds have sold-off by 4-5 points across the curve in last month amid the Iran war and surging US Treasury yields. Bahrain’s shorter-dated bonds experienced greater pressure, indicating heightened investor concern over near-term refinancing risks. Bahrain’s fiscal position was already fragile before the conflict, with a budget deficit of 10.5% of GDP and public debt exceeding 140% of GDP. The war has disrupted exports, reduced crude production and damaged infrastructure. According to Bloomberg, Bahrain’s sovereign risk premium has risen significantly above pre-war levels, and its borrowing costs now exceed Egypt’s (rated Caa1) despite Bahrain’s (rated B2) two-notch higher Moody’s rating. The situation has revived memories of the 2018 rescue, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait pledged more than $10bn following a previous funding crunch. Analysts believe GCC support could become more explicit if market weakness persists, given Bahrain’s strategic and geopolitical importance to its neighbours. Foreign-exchange reserves remain a concern, with the IMF estimating in January that they covered just over two months of non-hydrocarbon imports.
Its 5.625% 2031s were trading at 87.7, yielding 8.8%
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– Vandit P