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Bond Market News
Bahamas Upgraded to Ba3 by Moody’s
May 4, 2026
The Bahamas was upgraded by a notch to Ba3 from B1 by Moody’s. The upgrade resulted from sustained fiscal consolidation and reduced liquidity risk. The government has built a credible track record of large primary surpluses supported by stronger revenue collection, a broadened tax base through measures and disciplined spending. The Bahamas’ revenue base is becoming more resilient, moving beyond its traditional reliance on tourism cycles. Revenue is projected to rise from around 21% of GDP in fiscal 2025 to roughly 22.5% in fiscal 2026–27. The fiscal strength is expected to push government debt down to around 68% by fiscal 2027 from 72.5% of GDP in fiscal 2025, while interest payments as a share of revenue also decline. On the liquidity front, the government has shifted its financing mix toward longer-tenor multilateral sources from institutions like the IADB, Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), and Corporacion Andina de Fomento (CAF), reducing dependence on short-term domestic borrowing and costly commercial debt. While gross financing needs remain elevated at roughly 15% of GDP and commercial debt still dominates the external debt profile, the overall funding quality has improved meaningfully.
Bahamas’ dollar bonds traded stable. For instance, its 8.25% 2036s were at 112.8, yielding 6.5%.
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