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Argentina Upgraded to B- by Fitch
May 6, 2026
Argentina was upgraded by a notch to B- from CCC+ by Fitch. The upgrade reflects structurally improved fiscal and external balances, better prospects for FX reserve accumulation, and reasonable confidence that the government can meet its debt obligations. On the reform and fiscal front, Milei’s stronger congressional mandate following the October 2025 midterms has enabled key legislative victories including labour reform, mining-related environmental deregulation, and a 2026 budget that preserves a balanced budget anchor. Fitch expects the central government’s primary surplus to narrow modestly to 1.1% of GDP from 1.4% in 2025, with the overall fiscal balance slipping to a 0.3% deficit. The government’s financing strategy relies on multilateral guarantees of at least $2.5bn, $4bn in USD-denominated local bond issuances, and $2bn in privatisation proceeds. However, it opted not to tap external markets, limiting its ability to build a larger liquidity buffer before the elections. Argentina’s external position has improved structurally, driven by net energy exports. The 1Q2026 trade surplus hit a record $5.5bn, and gross FX reserves are expected to rise to $52.7bn by year-end, supported by $7.1bn in dollar purchases through April. However, net international reserves are said to remain low. On the debt side, foreign currency bond payments of $8.8bn are due in 2026 and rise to $9.8bn in 2027, alongside BCRA BOPREAL repayments of $5.2bn in 2027. Inflation has proven sticky, rising to 3.4% MoM in March 2026 from a low of 1.5% in May 2025, driven by exchange-rate pass-through, utility price adjustments, and beef prices.
Argentina’s dollar bonds traded stable. For instance, the 4.125% 2035s was at 74.5, yielding 8.94%.
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